2025 GSF: The Last Escudo: Power, Production, and the Path to Victory

May 27, 2025

Can the U.S. Outproduce Its Rivals? National Security and the Industrial Base

As the historian Paul Kennedy wrote in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, it is “incontestable” that “in a long-drawn-out Great Power (and usually coalition) war, victory has repeatedly gone to the side with the more flourishing productive base—or, as the Spanish captains used to say, to him who has the last escudo.” From munitions and materials to microchips and manpower, industrial capacity is the backbone of national defense. Moderated by Kari A. Bingen, Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow in the Defense and Security Department, CSIS, this panel will convene Hon. William J. Lynn III, CEO of Leonardo DRS and former Deputy Secretary of Defense; General (Ret.) Mike Minihan, former USAF Commander in the Air Mobility Command; and Ernest Malato, Director of Logistics at the Central Intelligence Agency. They will discuss how to secure and scale U.S. production and logistics to sustain deterrence—and, if needed, prevail in conflict.

Released by CSIS on May 13, 2025.

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